İsmail Doğruer | Aug 28, 2026
The ongoing trajectory of the war in Ukraine, coupled with concrete actions signaling the eager push by the UK and France toward a new war of redivision, are seen as factors driving Russia toward a first-strike posture. Reports have recently surfaced claiming that the US, China, and India have effectively warned Russia to “take its finger off the button.”
From the perspective of Russia’s declared threshold for employing nuclear weapons—a threat to its very existence—is a counter-offensive by Ukraine or its allies looming on the horizon that fits this criterion?
During negotiations over the containment of intercontinental ballistic and nuclear arms, the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons was constrained by international agreements. Given that the US was the first to withdraw from these treaties (1)(2), nullifying efforts to curb the development and use of intercontinental nuclear weapons, neither the US nor NATO member states retain any moral ground to challenge Russia’s tactical nuclear threats.
Could the warnings issued by Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, regarding the erasure of the UK from the world map be mere bluffing?
This posturing can be viewed as an attempt to compel allies—who currently encourage Ukraine to hold the trenches—to pressure Kyiv back to the negotiating table. Alternatively, it might represent a deliberate strategy to induce a state of shock and incapacitation in Ukraine by cutting off foreign support.
While such high-stakes escalation might look formidable in a game of poker, a vital question remains: Russia faces a third imperialist war of redivision whose focus centers primarily on Russia itself—a reality questioned by almost no one. Would launching a pre-emptive strike to eliminate key adversaries before they are fully prepared be an act of recklessness by Putin? Or does it mark a calculated transition into the next phase of Russia’s evolving post-millennium military doctrine?
One does not need to be a strategist to recognize that flexing fingers over the nuclear button—a choice no rational human being would normally make—and playing with fire within the Anglo-Saxon war-mongering, pro-nuclear camp have alarmingly become strategic norms.
The combined casualties of the first two imperialist world wars will pale in comparison to the projected mass loss of life in the impending third. The catalysts accelerating this phase are the UK and France, which provided Ukraine not just with FP5 Flamingo missiles, but with long-range “Storm Shadow” missiles—complete with licensing and full inventory capabilities—capable of striking deep into Russian territory. To everyone, especially those living on the European continent: brace yourselves.
Footnotes:
(1) National Security Archive – The U.S. Nuclear Presence in Western Europe, 1954–1962… U.S. State Department – Kennedy to Macmillan, August 7, 1962 … U.S. State Department – FRUS, 1961–1963, Document 166
(2) The New Yorker, December 17, 1955 — “Letter from Washington”… Medford Mail Tribune, December 22, 1955… Historic Oregon Newspapers – May 1, 1955 … UK Parliament Hansard – NATO Countries (Tactical Atomic Weapons), April 2, 1958
(3) “Russia could launch nuclear strikes on France, UK if they arm Kiev with nukes — Medvedev” TASS
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